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Stocks always outperform gold in the end, therefore there is no reason to own gold.
NO! Markets cycle. The performance of the stock market has been fundamentally tied to the performance of the dollar over most of the past century, and even though some people in Wall Street would like you to believe that growth and profits will never end, this is just not the case in reality. Well-defined peaks where the Dow-gold relationship favored stocks occurred in the late 1920s, the early 1960s, and the late 1990s at approximately 18 ounces, 28 ounces, and 44 ounces. From each peak, gold dramatically gained purchasing power in the ensuing years as the Dow dropped & the price of gold rose. The Dow achieved its most recent peak in the late 1990s at over 11,000. If the cyclical relationship between the two holds, and there is every reason to believe it will, we can expect gold to gain in Dow purchasing power over the next ten years, bottoming somewhere in the area of one or two ounces. At what price level will they cross? Richard Russel, the widely read market analyst and editor of Dow Theory Letter, offers the following opinion: “My guess is that before the current bull market in gold is over, gold will be priced substantially above the 1980 peak price of eight hundred-fifty dollars. How much higher I don’t know. At the recent New Orleans seminar I stated that as a guess I believed we’d see the price of the Dow and the price of gold cross. At what level? My guess was around three thousand dollars.”
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